Warmer month upon us

This past September, we had some tornado trouble in a month that turned out to be warmer than normal when averaged out. September’s departure from normal mean temperature was 4 degrees. Using that data and the numbers from the rest of the year, 2019 so far has a departure from normal of 0.25 degree.

How will we fare in October? This month should have its ups and downs but there may enough warm weather to turn October’s departure from normal on the positive. We started off chilly and overcast with some clearing in the past few days. Through the 7th is looks like it’ll be rainy and cool again. The 8th-15th may be cool enough for flurries, but the 16th-21st could come up sunny and warm. The 22nd-24th may be rainy and mild, but the rest of the month could be cold with snow showers. Flashback to 1991, anyone?

Despite a few threats of flurries, the month should be warmer than normal by 4 degrees. Rain totals may be a half-inch shy of normal.

Last month, one of the almanacs made a prediction of a bitterly cold winter with plenty of snow coming. One of the other almanacs is going the other way. It says that winter temperatures will be above normal with below-normal snowfall. The coldest periods will be in early- and mid-January, then late January to early February, and in late February to early- and mid-March. We’ll see the best chances of snow in early- and mid-January, and early February through early- and mid-March.

Of course, any of this could change.

Dave is a meteorologist for television station CBS 3 in Duluth.